Introduction
In 2025, India witnessed an early onset of the southwest monsoon, surprising meteorologists and affecting agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness across the country. But what led to this unusual development? What are the scientific reasons behind the early arrival? And how will it impact the Indian economy and rural livelihoods?
In this comprehensive post, we explain the factors contributing to the early monsoon, historical comparisons, IMD predictions, and the climate change context—all tailored for UPSC preparation and general knowledge.
What is the Indian Monsoon?
The Indian Monsoon is a complex climatic phenomenon that brings about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. It has two main branches:
• Southwest Monsoon (June–September)
• Northeast Monsoon (October–December)
The southwest monsoon begins from Kerala and moves northward, bringing crucial rains for Indian agriculture. The normal onset over Kerala is June 1 every year, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Why Did the Monsoon Arrive Early in 2025?
In 2025, the monsoon arrived over Kerala on May 26, five days ahead of its normal schedule. Let’s explore why.
Key Meteorological Factors
1. Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The MJO, an eastward-moving atmospheric disturbance over the tropics, enhanced convection over the Indian Ocean. This boosted cloud formation and increased the moisture content in the region.
2. Above-normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
The Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal recorded higher-than-average SSTs, which contributed to rapid low-pressure development. Warm waters fuel monsoon winds, speeding up the onset.
3. Favorable Wind Patterns
Low-level southwesterly winds strengthened earlier than usual due to shifting pressure patterns. This facilitated the transport of moisture from the equator to the Indian subcontinent.
4. Western Disturbances Subdued
Western disturbances (WDs), which typically bring pre-monsoon showers to north India, were relatively inactive, allowing the monsoon to advance unimpeded.
Role of Climate Change
Experts from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and IMD suggest that climate change is altering monsoon behavior. Several long-term indicators include:
• Increased frequency of early or delayed onsets
• Unpredictable rainfall distribution
• Shorter, more intense rain spells
These are in line with IPCC reports, which state that a warming planet leads to more moisture in the atmosphere, fueling extreme precipitation events.
Historical Comparison of Early Monsoon Onsets
Year | Monsoon Onset over Kerala | Deviation |
2025 | May 26 | -5 days |
2022 | May 29 | -2 days |
2017 | May 30 | -1 day |
2013 | June 1 | Normal |
As the table shows, early onset isn’t unprecedented, but 2025 was among the earliest in the last decade.
International Yoga Day: https://www.thebriefdesk.com/2025/06/international-yoga-day-2025-yoga-for.html
Impact on Agriculture
Early monsoon arrival can have mixed impacts on agriculture:
Positive Impacts:
• Timely sowing of Kharif crops like rice, maize, and pulses
• Better soil moisture levels for early crop establishment
• Enhanced groundwater recharge
Negative Impacts:
• If followed by a long dry spell, it can affect germination
• Erratic rainfall patterns may lead to flooding in some areas and drought in others
• Farmers may miscalculate crop cycles based on early rains
The Ministry of Agriculture has already issued region-specific advisories to mitigate risks.
Impact on Urban Areas
Cities like Mumbai, Kochi, and Chennai are seeing early waterlogging and drainage issues due to:
• Unprepared urban drainage systems
• Increased flash floods
• Delays in infrastructure readiness
This reinforces the need for urban climate resilience strategies.
What Does the IMD Say?
The IMD’s 2025 Southwest Monsoon Outlook highlights:
• Monsoon to be above normal over central and eastern India
• Northwest India may experience below-average rainfall
• Possibility of localized extreme weather events
It also noted a transition from El Niño to La Niña, which tends to strengthen Indian monsoons.
Global Climate Patterns: El Niño to La Niña
• El Niño: Weakens Indian monsoon
• La Niña: Strengthens rainfall over India
In 2025, the Pacific Ocean is cooling, indicating the emergence of La Niña conditions. This may enhance monsoon strength, especially in eastern and central India.
Government Actions & Policy Responses
1. Early Warnings: IMD’s improved modeling helped notify states in advance.
2. Crop Advisory Bulletins: Agromet services provided district-wise recommendations.
3. Urban Alerts: NDMA coordinated with state disaster teams for flood preparedness.
4. Water Storage Plans: Central Water Commission began early reservoir monitoring.
Way Forward
• Strengthening IMD’s forecasting models
• Climate-proofing agriculture through resilient seeds and practices
• Improving urban flood infrastructure
• Increased research funding for monsoon science
(Indus water treaty: https://www.thebriefdesk.com/2025/06/blog-post.html )
Conclusion
The early arrival of the 2025 monsoon is not just a meteorological curiosity, but a climate signalwith significant socio-economic consequences. From farm fields to city streets, India must adapt to changing rain patterns through data-driven governance, public awareness, and climate-resilient planning.
As UPSC aspirants and informed citizens, it’s crucial to understand the science, policy, and impact of such climate events—and prepare for a future shaped increasingly by the planet’s changing rhythms.
